Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Lawler: July Existing Home Sales "up significantly" from June; Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers

Economist Tom Lawler noted today:
While I have not seen enough local realtor/MLS reports to derive an accurate estimate of existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors, the data I have seen so far strongly suggest that July existing home sales on a seasonally adjusted basis will be up significantly from June’s disappointing pace.
Lawler also sent the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in July.

From CR: Look at the two columns in the table for Total "Distressed" Share. In every area that has reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed sales is down significantly year-over-year. 

Also there has been a decline in foreclosure sales in all of these cities, except Springfield, IL .  

And short sales are declining year-over-year too!  This is a recent change - short sales had been increasing year-over-year, but it looks like both categories of distressed sales are now declining.

The All Cash Share appears to be starting to decline.  The all cash share will probably decline further as investors buying declines

 Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" ShareAll Cash Share
Jul-13Jul-12Jul-13Jul-12Jul-13Jul-12Jul-13Jul-12
Las Vegas28.0%40.0%8.0%20.7%36.0%60.7%54.5%54.8%
Reno21.0%38.0%7.0%15.0%28.0%53.0%  
Phoenix11.5%29.5%9.4%14.6%20.8%44.1%35.8%44.9%
Sacramento19.7%31.0%7.3%23.2%27.0%54.2%25.5%31.1%
Minneapolis5.6%9.3%15.0%24.5%20.6%33.8%  
Mid-Atlantic 7.2%11.3%6.6%8.7%13.8%20.0%16.1%17.9%
Charlotte    9.5%13.8%  
Des Moines      15.1%18.8%
Peoria      18.6%20.7%
Pensacola      30.0%31.2%
Omaha      15.9%15.6%
Tucson      29.1%33.3%
Memphis*  16.7%26.9%    
Birmingham AL  17.2%27.2%    
Springfield IL  13.1%13.0%    
*share of existing home sales, based on property records

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