The Ryland Group reported that net home orders in the quarter ended September 30, 2013 totaled 1,592, up 5.6% from the comparable quarter of 2012 (which included 7 net orders in areas where operations had been discontinued). The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 23.0% last quarter, compared to 19.9% a year ago. The company’s community count at the end of September was up 20.9% from a year ago, and the company’s average sales absorption rate per community last quarter was down about 13% from the comparable quarter of 2012. Home closings totaled 1,883 last quarter, up 42.4% from the comparable quarter of 2012, at an average sales price of $298,000, up 12.9% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of September was 3,376, up 36.5% from last September. Ryland said that its controlled lots at the end of September totaled 39,698, up 49.1% from last September.
Standard Pacific Homes reported that net home orders (ex jvs) in the quarter ended September 30, 2013 totaled 1,110, up 12.2% from the comparable quarter of 2012. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 19.7% last quarter, compared to 14.0% a year ago. The company’s average community count last quarter was up 7.7% from a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 1,217, up 41.3% from the comparable quarter of 2012, at an average sales price of $420,000, up 13.8% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of September was 2,165, up 55.3% from last September. The company controlled 35,643 lots (including jvs) at the end of September, up 18.2% from a year ago.
Here is a summary of selected stats released so far by large, publicly-traded builders.
| Net Orders | Settlements | Average Closing Price | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qtr. Ended: | 9/30/13 | 9/30/12 | % Chg | 9/30/13 | 9/30/12 | % Chg | 9/30/13 | 9/30/12 | % Chg |
| Pulte Group | 3,781 | 4,544 | -16.8% | 4,817 | 4,418 | 9.0% | $310,000 | $279,000 | 11.1% |
| NVR | 2,381 | 2,558 | -6.9% | 3,342 | 2,656 | 25.8% | $349,200 | $321,700 | 8.5% |
| The Ryland Group | 1,592 | 1,507 | 5.6% | 1,883 | 1,322 | 42.4% | $298,000 | $264,000 | 12.9% |
| Standard Pacific | 1,110 | 989 | 12.2% | 1,217 | 861 | 41.3% | $420,000 | $369,000 | 13.8% |
| Meritage Homes | 1,300 | 1,204 | 8.0% | 1,418 | 1,197 | 18.5% | $341,000 | $280,000 | 21.8% |
| MDC Holdings | 924 | 1,008 | -8.3% | 1,257 | 1,039 | 21.0% | $345,000 | $320,647 | 7.6% |
| M/I Homes | 869 | 757 | 14.8% | 937 | 746 | 25.6% | $284,000 | $266,000 | 6.8% |
| Total | 11,957 | 12,567 | -4.9% | 14,871 | 12,239 | 21.5% | $330,568 | $295,818 | 11.7% |
The YOY % change in net orders for the above seven builders for the quarter ended June 30, 2013 was +11.5%. Net orders for the latest quarter were down 25.0% from the previous quarter, compared to a sequential quarterly decline of 12.1% a year ago.
Builder results so far strongly indicate that the combination of higher mortgage rates and aggressive home price increases resulted in a significant slowdown in new home sales last quarter. While the relationship between large builder results and Census estimates for new home sales is far from perfect (partly reflecting market-share changes but also reflecting methodological and timing differences), these builder results suggest that Census estimates for new SF home sales for September (re-scheduled for release, along with estimates for October, on December 4th), could be down sharply from August.
emphasis added
No comments:
Post a Comment