While I don’t yet have enough local data to produce a precise estimate of national existing home sales for October, my “best guess” right now based on the data I have is that existing home sales (as measured by the NAR) ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million in October, down 4.0% from September’s seasonally-adjusted pace.On short sales from CR: Look at the first two columns in the table for Short Sales Share. Short sales are down sharply from a year ago, and will probably really decline in early 2014. It appears that the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 will not be extended again next year. Usually cancelled debt is considered income, but a provision of the 2007 Debt Relief Act allowed borrowers "to exclude certain cancelled debt on [a] principal residence from income. Debt reduced through mortgage restructuring, as well as mortgage debt forgiven in connection with a foreclosure, qualifies for the relief." (excerpt from IRS). This relief expires on Dec 31, 2013. Complete all short sales by the end of this year!
It’s worth noting that pending sales in most areas showed substantially slower YOY growth in October compared to September, and quite a few areas showed a YOY drop – suggesting that November sales could be weak/down as well.
Total "Distressed" Share. In most areas that have reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year. Also there has been a significant decline in foreclosure sales in all of these cities.
The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. When investors pull back in markets like Phoenix (already declining), the share of all cash buyers will probably decline.
In general it appears the housing market is slowly moving back to normal.
| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total "Distressed" Share | All Cash Share | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-13 | Oct-12 | Oct-13 | Oct-12 | Oct-13 | Oct-12 | Oct-13 | Oct-12 | |
| Las Vegas | 21.0% | 44.7% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 27.0% | 56.3% | 44.9% | 54.1% |
| Reno | 16.0% | 40.0% | 4.0% | 12.0% | 20.0% | 52.0% | ||
| Phoenix | 8.4% | 26.2% | 6.9% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 39.1% | 31.6% | 43.9% |
| Sacramento | 11.4% | 35.7% | 5.1% | 12.0% | 16.5% | 47.7% | 23.9% | 36.9% |
| Minneapolis | 5.1% | 10.4% | 16.4% | 24.9% | 21.5% | 35.3% | ||
| Mid-Atlantic | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 22.1% | 19.9% | 20.0% |
| So. California* | 12.9% | 27.2% | 6.3% | 16.3% | 19.2% | 43.5% | 27.5% | 32.8% |
| Toledo | 37.0% | 38.6% | ||||||
| Tucson | 32.9% | 31.8% | ||||||
| Omaha | 20.0% | 20.4% | ||||||
| SE Michigan | 34.5% | 44.3% | ||||||
| Memphis* | 18.4% | 22.9% | ||||||
| Birmingham AL | 21.0% | 30.8% | ||||||
| *share of existing home sales, based on property records | ||||||||
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