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With the FDIC releasing its enforcement actions through May 2013, there were many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. For the week, there were seven removals and five additions that leave the at 749 institutions with assets of $273.3 billion. For the month of June, the list fell by a net 12 institutions after seven additions, seven action terminations, six unassisted mergers, five failures, and one voluntary liquidation. Assets fell by $4.02 billion, which is the smallest decline since a $3.99 billion in November 2012. In addition, there was a noticeable slowdown in action terminations, which were last at this level in November 2011.
This week actions were terminated against Farmers Bank, Ault, CO ($232 million); Peoples Bank & Trust Company, Owenton, KY ($64 million); Lakeview Bank, Lakeville, MN ($54 million); Park State Bank, Duluth, MN ($30 million); and Roxbury Bank, Roxbury, KS ($14 million). Also, the FDIC terminated a Prompt Corrective Action order against First Sound Bank, Seattle, WA ($123 million), but it is still subject to a Consent Order. Other removals from finding merger partners include First National Bank of Illinois, Lansing, IL ($374 million) and Community State Bank, Norwalk, WI ($24 million).
Additions this week were Bay Cities Bank, Tampa, FL ($534 million); Oswego Community Bank, Oswego, IL ($194 million); SunSouth Bank, Dothan, AL ($178 million); VistaBank, Aiken, SC ($109 million); and First State Bank of Swanville, Swanville, MN ($30 million).
As promised last week, we have updated the transition matrix with the passage of the second quarter of 2013. Full details may be found in the accompanying table. As depicted, there have been a total of 1,644 institutions with assets of $811.4 billion that have appeared on the list. A little more the 54 percent of the institutions that have appeared on the list have been removed. A total of 895 institutions are no longer on the list. Since the publishing start of this list in 2009, failure has been the primary manner of exit; however, at this point, terminations are now responsible for more removals at 377. Close behind are failures at 363 while finding a merger partner has been responsible for 144 removals. While failures have slipped as the primary form of exit from the list, the amount of assets removed for failure total $292.6 billion, which dwarfs $164.4 billion in assets from institutions where actions were terminated.
As discussed above, there was a discernible slowdown in the pace of action terminations this month and quarter. There were 34 terminations during the quarter, which represented 4.5 percent of the 757 institutions that were on the list at the start of the quarter. During the first quarter of 2013, the termination rate was 6.1 percent. The 34 terminations were the lowest quarterly count since 32 in the first quarter of 2012. There were 108 institutions still hanging around from the original publication at the start of the second quarter of 2013, but only four were removed this quarter because of action termination, which was a much lower termination rate of 3.7 percent. The transition methods of the 389 institutions on the original list in August 2009 does differ significantly from the pool of subsequent additions.
| Unofficial Problem Bank List | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Summary | |||
| Number of Institutions | Assets ($Thousands) | ||
| Start (8/7/2009) | 389 | 276,313,429 | |
| Subtractions | |||
| Action Terminated | 108 | (31,933,282) | |
| Unassisted Merger | 27 | (4,452,830) | |
| Voluntary Liquidation | 4 | (10,584,114) | |
| Failures | 150 | (183,316,242) | |
| Asset Change | (8,734,399) | ||
| Still on List at 6/30/2013 | 100 | 37,292,562 | |
| Additions | 649 | 235,975,860 | |
| End (6/30/2013) | 749 | 273,268,422 | |
| Intraperiod Deletions1 | |||
| Action Terminated | 269 | 132,439,197 | |
| Unassisted Merger | 117 | 55,560,134 | |
| Voluntary Liquidation | 7 | 1,760,816 | |
| Failures | 213 | 109,331,508 | |
| Total | 606 | 299,091,655 | |
| 1Institution not on 8/7/2009 or 6/30/2013 list but appeared on a weekly list. | |||
The U.S. pumped 6.5 million barrels a day of oil last year, according to the Energy Information Administration, the most since the mid-1990s, and production has continued to surge; April’s figure of 7.4 million barrels per day marked the best month in more than two decades.But, until the gap disappears completely, we still need to use Brent crude prices to forecast U.S. gasoline prices.
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The industry wasn’t expecting the huge surge in production from North Dakota, so companies didn’t have the pipelines in place to handle all the new oil. So rather than flow into the global market, much of the oil stayed in the middle of the U.S.
Now, however, the gap between WTI and Brent is starting to narrow, as a new report from the Energy Information Administration makes clear. The industry has expanded pipeline capacity and found other ways, such as rail cars, to get oil from the middle of the country to major demand centers on the coasts. Meanwhile, coastal refineries are shifting to use more domestic crudes, leading to lower demand for Brent. The result: The gap between the two prices has narrowed to under $10 per barrel.
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10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for an increase to 50.5 from 49.0 in May. Based on the regional surveys, a reading above 50 seems likely.
All day: Light vehicle sales for June. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 15.5 million SAAR in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 15.3 million SAAR in May.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau. 
The economy has added 6.9 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (6.3 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).
The rise in mortgage rates may impact the economy through two broad channels: (1) the direct impact on construction activity and home sales, which feed into the residential investment component of GDP, and (2) the indirect effects of lower home prices and less refinancing activity on consumption.My view - as I noted in House Prices and Mortgage Rates earlier this week - is that higher mortgage rates might slow price increases, but not lead to a decline in prices. I'll look into the relationship between mortgage rates and activity, but my first guess is the recent increase in rates will not slow the recovery in residential investment.
Complementing our past research on the impact of mortgage rates on various aspects of housing, we use a vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach to trace out the potential impact of the rise in mortgage rates. This analysis points to a manageable total impact on real GDP growth over the coming year of roughly two tenths of a percentage point. The direct effects of higher mortgage rates are likely to be larger in magnitude than the indirect effects.
Our estimate is subject to uncertainty. On the one hand, factors other than housing affordability―such as origination capacity constraints and borrower credit quality issues―are at present probably more important constraints than they have been historically. As a result, the sensitivity of housing indicators to changes in mortgage rates may be lower than historical estimates suggest. On the other hand, for technical reasons the nature of our statistical analysis may understate the magnitude of the potential impact.
Click on graph for larger imageThe Case-Shiller data for April came out [Tuesday] and, based on this information and the May 2013 Zillow Home Value Index (released last week), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (May 2013) will show that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) increased 12.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) increased 12.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from April to May will be 1.3 percent for the 20-City Composite and 1.6 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (SA).The following table shows the Zillow forecast for the May Case-Shiller index.
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The Case-Shiller indices are giving an inflated sense of national home value appreciation because they are biased toward the large, coastal metros currently seeing such enormous home value gains, and because they include foreclosure resales. The inclusion of foreclosure resales disproportionately boosts the index when these properties sell again for much higher prices — not just because of market improvements, but also because the sales are no longer distressed. In contrast, the ZHVI does not include foreclosure resales and shows home values for May 2013 up 5.4 percent from year-ago levels. We expect home value appreciation to continue to moderate in 2013, rising only 4.1 percent between May 2013 and May 2014. Further details on our forecast of home values can be found here, and more on Zillow’s full May 2013 report can be found here.
To forecast the Case-Shiller indices, we use the March Case-Shiller index level, as well as the April Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is available more than a month in advance of the Case-Shiller index, paired with April foreclosure resale numbers, which Zillow also publishes more than a month prior to the release of the Case-Shiller index. Together, these data points enable us to reliably forecast the Case-Shiller 10-City and 20-City Composite indices.
| Zillow May Forecast for Case-Shiller Index | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Shiller Composite 10 | Case Shiller Composite 20 | ||||
| NSA | SA | NSA | SA | ||
| Case Shiller (year ago) | May 2012 | 151.75 | 152.67 | 139.2 | 140.06 |
| Case-Shiller (last month) | Apr 2013 | 165.63 | 168.76 | 152.37 | 155.37 |
| Zillow Forecast | YoY | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% |
| MoM | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | |
| Zillow Forecasts1 | 170.3 | 171.4 | 156.0 | 157.2 | |
| Current Post Bubble Low | 146.46 | 149.55 | 134.07 | 136.85 | |
| Date of Post Bubble Low | Mar-12 | Jan-12 | Mar-12 | Jan-12 | |
| Above Post Bubble Low | 16.3% | 14.6% | 16.4% | 14.9% | |
| 1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts | |||||
Buoyed by stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) hit a 14-month high in May. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 101.8 in May, up 0.9 percent from April and the third consecutive monthly gain. May also represented the third straight month that the RPI surpassed the 100 level, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.
“The May increase in the Restaurant Performance Index was driven by broad-based gains in the current situation indicators, most notably positive same-store sales and customer traffic results,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the National Restaurant Association. “In addition, restaurant operators remain optimistic about continued sales growth and a majority plan to make a capital expenditure in the next six months.”
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The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures), stood at 101.6 in May – up 1.6 percent from a level of 100.1 in April. May represented the strongest Current Situation Index reading since March 2012, and signifies expansion in the current situation indicators.
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The Chicago Business BarometerTM declined to 51.6 in June, the largest monthly drop since October 2008, and down from a 14-month high of 58.7 in May. The gyrations seen over the past few months are not typical for the Barometer and some of this might be attributable to the unseasonable weather conditions.PMI: Decreased to 51.6 from 58.7. (Above 50 is expansion).
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Of the five Business Activity measures which make up the Barometer, four declined with only the Employment indicator posting an increase. Order Backlogs plunged deep into contraction to the lowest level since September 2009 and was the single biggest drag on Barometer. Faster Supplier Delivery times and declines in Production and New Orders also contributed to the Barometer’s weakness.
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The momentum in home prices has continued to exceed even our bullish expectations. The S&P Case-Shiller index increased 16.7% annualized in 1Q and continued to climb higher in April, sending prices to a 12.1% yoy rate. We therefore have revised up our forecast for home prices from 8% 4Q/4Q growth this year to 11.8% 4Q/4Q. The three factors boosting home prices have been: shrinking share of distressed properties, low months supply and an increase in momentum; we believe the latter is the most powerful.I expect more inventory to come on the market, and for price increases to slow.
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We also maintain our forecast that home price appreciation will slow to 6.5% next year with a risk of annual price declines within the next five years. This is decidedly not the beginning of a housing bubble.
People familiar with the process wouldn't divulge any names on the shortlist, but said there was no front-runner. The White House is still in an early stage of the process and might not announce its selection until the early fall, they said.Let me help - the front runner is Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen.
Using this quick method of comparing the different data series, the private sector sum of all the individual states is expected to be revised upward by approximately 500,000 (0.5%) for December. However, the topline U.S. employment estimate is currently larger than the sum of states would suggest. As such, we can expect a somewhat smaller upward revisions of around one month’s worth of job gains (200,000) in the national figures.Friday:
Overall, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy rose 0.5% to 72.5%, its ADR increased 4.1% to $111.64 and its RevPAR grew 4.6% to $80.96.The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to normal levels.
Click on graph for larger image.Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates jumping along with bond yields amid recent Fed remarks that it could begin tapering its bond purchases later this year. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 3.93 percent last week to 4.46 percent this week; the highest it has been since the week of July 28, 2011. ...Mortgage rates have increased for seven consecutive weeks, and spiked higher last week.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.46 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending June 27, 2013, up from last week when it averaged 3.93 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.66 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.50 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.04 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.94 percent.
Click on graph for larger image.
The second graph shows the 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® compared to the MBA refinance index. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the June Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity fell modestly, although producers’ expectations for future activity continued to increase.Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:
“We were a bit discouraged to see factory activity decline in June after it expanded slightly in May,” said Wilkerson. “But quite a few contacts lost production or had shipments delayed due to regional storms and flooding, so the downturn appears like it may be temporary.”
The month-over-month composite index was -5 in June, down from 2 in May but equal to -5 in April and March ... Other month-over-month indexes showed mixed results. The production index dropped from 5 to -17, its lowest level since March 2009, and the shipments and new orders indexes also fell markedly. The order backlog and employment indexes increased somewhat but still remain slightly below zero.
Click on graph for larger image.Personal income increased $69.4 billion, or 0.5 percent ... in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $29.0 billion, or 0.3 percent.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
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Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in May, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in April. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in May, in contrast to a decrease of 0.3 percent in April. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent.
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This graph is for PCE prices.
The second graph is for core PCE prices.The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 6.7 percent to 112.3 in May from a downwardly revised 105.2 in April, and is 12.1 percent above May 2012 when it was 100.2; the data reflect contracts but not closings.Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in June and July.
Contract activity is at the strongest pace since December 2006 when it reached 112.8; pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 25 months.
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The PHSI in the Northeast was unchanged at 92.3 in May but is 14.3 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 10.2 percent to 115.5 in May and is 22.2 percent higher than May 2012. Pending home sales in the South rose 2.8 percent to an index of 121.8 in May and are 12.3 percent above a year ago. The index in the West jumped 16.0 percent in May to 109.7, but with limited inventory is only 1.1 percent above May 2012.
Personal income increased $69.4 billion, or 0.5 percent ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $29.0 billion, or 0.3 percent.The consensus was for a 0.2% increase in personal income in May, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. I'll have more on this report soon.
The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in May ... The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent
In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 346,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 348,500.The previous week was revised up from 354,000.
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"A growing chorus of leaders is calling for a new growth model, one that creates more and better jobs by engaging rising global demand and attracting global talent and capital. These leaders recognize that only by harnessing the power of ..."Read the entire article: Going Global: Boosting Metro Denver's Economic Future
We don’t mean to be entirely dismissive of the prevailing higher rates. The economy didn’t need any shade thrown at one of its few bright spots, especially with the continued fiscal drag and steady-but-unimpressive employment gains. Low rates not only spur along housing but also make credit more affordable for buying durable goods and automobiles, purchases of which often accompany newly formed households.Thursday:
And there isn’t much evidence (yet) to show that the fundamental supply-side problems we previously discussed have been mitigated, as such improvements would partly depend on the housing market’s continued rebound and wider improvements in the economy.
But at least the higher rates have arrived at a time when the housing market had favourable momentum.
“There’s no strong correlation between interest rates and home prices,” said Douglas Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae.Duncan is correct.
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The second graph shows the same data, but with house prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation).The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for May 2013. In the past month, the indexes increased in 33 states, decreased in eight states, and remained stable in nine, for a one-month diffusion index of 50. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in five, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 76.Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
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Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession. June auto sales are on track for their best month since before the 2008-2009 sales plunge ... J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said June sales will show a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 15.7 million vehicles sold, up 7.6 percent from a year ago and the best showing since December 2007.From TrueCar: June 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up Nearly Eight Percent According to TrueCar; June 2013 SAAR at 15.7M, Highest June SAAR Since 2007
For June 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,380,543 units, up 7.8 percent from June 2012 ... The June 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.7 million new car sales, up from 15.3 million in May 2013 and up from 14.4 million in June 2012.Two key points: 1) sales growth will slow in 2013, and 2) it appears auto sales were solid in June.
| Light Vehicle Sales | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sales (millions) | Annual Change | |
| 2005 | 16.9 | 0.5% |
| 2006 | 16.5 | -2.6% |
| 2007 | 16.1 | -2.5% |
| 2008 | 13.2 | -18.0% |
| 2009 | 10.4 | -21.2% |
| 2010 | 11.6 | 11.1% |
| 2011 | 12.7 | 10.2% |
| 2012 | 14.4 | 13.4% |
| 20131 | 15.2 | 5.3% |
| 1Sales rate for first five months of 2013. | ||
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"One of the big things in international trade is that people don't go into something new because they do not understand it," said Mark Peterson, Greater Rochester Enterprise (GRE) President & CEO. "We want them growing, we want them adding jobs and we want them to be able to have the knowledge they need to grow as fast as possible."Read the entire article: International Business Council Helps Local Companies Go Global
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Personal consumption expenditure growth was revised down from a 3.4% annualized rate in the 2nd estimate to 2.6% in the 3rd estimate of GDP.
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The downward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures, to exports, and to nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports.
Click on graph for larger image.The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week to the lowest level since November 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier.
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“Interest rates moved up sharply following the Federal Reserve press conference last Wednesday where it was indicated that the Fed could begin tapering their asset purchases later this year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Mortgage rates increased by the most in a single week since 2011, and refinance application volume dropped to its lowest level in almost two years. However, applications for conventional purchase loans picked up by more than 3 percent over the week, and total purchase applications were 16 percent higher than one year ago, indicating that homebuyers are not yet dissuaded by the increase in mortgage rates. Government purchase applications dropped again, likely a function of the recent increase in FHA mortgage insurance premiums.”
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 4.46 percent, the highest rate since August 2011, from 4.17 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. The 4-week average of the purchase index has generally been trending up over the last year, and the 4-week average of the purchase index is up almost 10% from a year ago.
The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index jumped 2.3% in May after falling 0.2% in April. ... In May, the SA index equaled 126.0 (2000=100) versus 123.2 in April. May 2013 is the highest level on record, surpassing the previous high in December 2011(124.3). Compared with May 2012, the SA index surged 6.7%, which is the largest year-over-year gain since December 2011.
“After bouncing around in a fairly tight band during the previous three months, tonnage skyrocketed in May,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. Some of the increase is attributable to factory output rising in May for the first time since February (+0.2%) and retail sales performing stronger than expected in May (+0.6%). Costello added, “The 6.8% surge in new housing starts during May obviously pushed tonnage up as home construction generates a significant amount of truck tonnage.”
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows the quarterly Case-Shiller National Index SA (through Q1 2013), and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA and CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through March) in nominal terms as reported.
The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.
Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.
The last graph shows the bubble peak, the post bubble minimum, and current nominal prices relative to January 2000 prices for all the Case-Shiller cities in nominal terms.“Today’s Case-Shiller numbers may reflect where the housing market has been in some of the frothier metros, but they are not indicative of where it’s headed. The housing market worm has turned over the past few weeks – inventory levels are beginning to show signs of easing, and mortgage interest rates are creeping up. Going forward, both of these factors will help mitigate extreme price spikes caused by very strong housing demand and very low housing supply,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Runaway appreciation in many of the large, coastal metros that form the backbone of the Case-Shiller indices will begin to moderate. Home value appreciation in some of these areas will have to slow down, or potentially fall, as higher bottom-line prices are no longer masked by rock-bottom mortgage rates. In general, the national housing recovery is strong and sustainable, but pockets of volatility will emerge as local fundamentals shift. Buyers expecting home values to continue rising at this pace indefinitely may be in for a shock.”I agree with Humphries view on prices. I've been tracking inventory weekly, and it appears inventory levels are starting to increase (even after seasonal adjustment). Also I've heard reports from several real estate agents that the market has "slowed" (fewer multiple offer situations), even before mortgage rates increased. I also think Humphries is correct that this will slow down price increases going forward.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
Another way to look at this is a ratio of existing to new home sales."Sales of new single-family houses in May 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 476,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.1 percent above the revised April rate of 466,000 and is 29.0 percent above the May 2012 estimate of 369,000."
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal)."The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 161,000. This represents a supply of 4.1 months at the current sales rate."On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.
This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.
